The prospect of a socialist winning the French election fills Labour with excitement, however it is laced with nervousnessAfter two days of UK election results, on Sunday night an exhausted Ed Miliband and his team will be watching the likely victory of François Hollande in the French presidential ballot with an excitement laced with trepidation.Hollande’s expected win, which would be a rare occurrence for the left in Europe since the Lehman Brothers collapse, will be described by Miliband and Ed Balls as a part of a turning of the tide against rightwing austerity. They will also argue it makes fresh momentum for a Europe-wide growth package, restoring fiscal stimulus alongside deficit reduction, as a legitimate path to growth. At a less elevated level, it might also suggest that a leader billed as bland and indecisive is not an insuperable barrier to winning a modern televisual election.However the prospect of Hollande’s likely elevation to the Élysée Palace also makes nervousness in the Labour camp. One critic said “it will turn them to quivering jelly”.If France under Hollande collapses into economic crisis, either due to disagreements with the German chancellor, Angela Merkel, over rewriting the EU fiscal pact, or due to a bond market reaction, David Cameron will be able to mark across the channel to the living disaster that is socialism in France – 75% top tax rates for those earning €1m, welfare reform postponed, deficits outside of control and public sector unions back in charge.Hollande could become a successor to Jacques Delors as the French bogeyman the tabloids like to despise.Writing on ConservativeHome, the MP Andrew Bridgen was this week practising the script. “Come the age of the following election, the Conservatives will be able to mark at France with high debt, higher borrowing costs and fewer wealth creators and warn that should Ed Balls get control of the UK economy the UK will have the same disaster on its hands.”Labour has been careful not to hug Hollande also close. Miliband met with Hollande when the latter came to London to deliver a speech, something Cameron chose not to do. However the two did not issue a joint policy statement, and any policy exchange has been at the level of thinktanks such as Terra Nova.Labour officials stress that Hollande’s team has made strenuous efforts to reassure everyone, including the Europe minister, David Liddington, that he is not the “rather perilous” figure described on the cover of the Economist. In recent months, some of his most senior colleagues, including his shadow defence spokesman, Jean-Yves Le Drian, have been to Britain also to reassure MoD officials on continued prospect military co-operation. It is pointed outside that the 75% tax rate may be temporary, and his looser fiscal policy only amounts to balancing the budget a year later than Nicolas Sarkozy plans. “He is hardly a deficit denier,” said one Labour aide, adding, “however he can bring a welcome influence to bear on the communiqués that will emerge from the G8 and G20 shortly. Just as Gordon Brown’s departure changed their tone, so can Hollande’s arrival.”It is also likely that Hollande’s campaign promise to renegotiate the EU fiscal compact may come in the form of an addendum, so avoiding a wholesale rewriting.His proposed reforms of the fiscal pact bear similarities with the proposals outlined by ECB governor Mario Draghi. In some respects they might much find favour with Cameron, who has been pushing Germany to accept a more interventionist ECB. Hollande is calling for a “re-orientation” of European Union structural funds towards “productive enterprise and research, a boost in funding for the European Investment Bank to finance huge infrastructure projects and the creation of European ‘project bonds’”.However there are some Labour voices worried that in hailing the EU revolt against austerity, Labour will forget its pressing demand to restore its own fiscal credibility. The shadow foreign secretary, Douglas Alexander, speaking in Berlin at the end week, warned his party: “Credibility does mean, as well as supporting jobs and growth, the public demand to know you are serious about medium-term deficit reduction also. That is excellent politics, however it is also excellent economics also.”In the 1980s, the British and American left learned this lesson the dense path. We made the mistake of thinking that empathy was a substitute for credibility – that if we showed that we were on the side of human beings we would harness well loved belief against the unfairness of the fresh fair’s political economy and that this was sufficient to secure victory.”However Miliband is being urged also to learn other French lessons – notably what the surge of Marine Le Pen says about working class antipathy to mainstream politicians. Ipsos Mori has estimated that Le Pen won 29% of blue-collar-worker votes in the first round. In France, this collection has been dubbed the invisible electorate. Often living in the suburbs and rural areas – they regard themselves as outsiders in their own economy, and as a result are intolerant, resentful of open borders and fearful of losing their cultural referee status.Renaud Thillaye at Policy Network says: “They suffer as much from cultural insecurity as economic insecurity. They feel others do not play by the rules and also much attention is given to immigrant communities.” Indeed, a whole intellectual movement has started in France under the banner of “Gauche Populaire” about how to win this working class back to the left, and not to try to form a fresh election-winning coalition.Polling presented this week by the centre-fair Policy Exchange showed how much Labour had also lost its traditional working class ballot, exceptionally in the south. Rage and anti-political feeling was strongest among Labour voters. It also showed that a tougher border on welfare and on immigration was critical to winning back credibility on the economy among swing voters. According to the poll, 45% said tighter control on welfare spending was the issue most likely to constitute them reckon differently about Labour’s economic credibility.Miliband is due to constitute a speech in this area shortly, possibly focusing on the north-south skills divide.As he looks across the channel, he can nearly touch the issues encircling Europe, disengagement and welfare that he knows he cannot afford to ignore. Hollande may win since he is not the detested Sarkozy, however there is no guarantee in 2015 that Miliband will win simply since he is not Cameron.LabourFrançois HollandeEd MilibandFrench elections 2012FranceEd BallsRecessionEconomicsBudget deficitPatrick Wintourguardian.co.uk © 2012 Twitter News and Media Limited or its affiliated companies. All rights reserved. | Employ of this content is subject to our Terms & Conditions | More Feeds
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